Key points
Importance of the ACT region
The ACT is a self-governing territory in the south-east of Australia, containing Australia’s capital city – Canberra, which is home to 450,000 people. Canberra also serves as a regional hub for smaller regional cities, towns and villages in the surrounding areas of NSW.
Its population has a strong working-age base, which is a higher proportion than the NSW and ACT average.
The ACT is situated within the upper Murrumbidgee River catchment, in the Murray–Darling Basin.
Overall the ACT has a relatively dry, continental climate, experiencing warm to hot summers, and cool to cold winters. However, due to the ACT’s varied landscape, the ACT does experience a range of climatic conditions over a relatively small area. The average climate gets cooler and wetter the further south you go.
The range of climates support a variety of habitats including open grasslands, low open woodlands and tall wet forests. The region also contains important subalpine heathlands and wetlands.
The ACT supports a diverse range of industries. The largest industries in the region, by employment, are public administration and safety, specialised services (professional, scientific and technical), as well as health care and social assistance.
These cultural, environmental and economic values are just some aspects of the region which have been identified as being highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change is already affecting the ACT region and its environmental, cultural and economic values. The impacts of this can be seen through the widespread bushfires of 2019–2020, which included the Orroral Valley fire which burned around 86,562 hectares.
How the ACT is affected by climate change
Climate projections for the ACT are shown relative to a baseline. This consistent reference point (the baseline) avoids the problems that could occur if future projections are measured against a shifting point of comparison, such as a constantly moving 'current' period.
- The baseline period: the modelled average of the 20-year period between 1990-2009.
- Middle of the century (2050): the projected average of the 20-year period between 2040-2059.
- End of the century (2090): the projected average of the 20-year period between 2080-2099.
Detailed information on the projected climate changes for the ACT can be found in the ACT snapshot or explored further through the Interactive climate change projections map.
Projections for the ACT
Temperature
Across the ACT, average temperatures are projected to rise throughout this century under all emissions scenarios. The main difference between scenarios is the scale of change: lower emissions show slower and more moderate increases, while higher emissions lead to a greater and ongoing rise in average temperature.
Under a low-emissions scenario, the rate of average temperature increase is expected to slow around the middle of the century. Under medium- and high-emissions scenarios, temperatures are expected to keep climbing past the middle of the century with no sign of levelling off by the end of the century, with faster and greater increases under a high-emissions scenario.
Hot days
Across the ACT, the number of hot days is projected to increase throughout this century under all emissions scenarios. The main difference between scenarios is the scale of change: lower emissions show slower and more moderate increases, while higher emissions lead to a greater and ongoing rise in the number of hot days.
Under a low-emissions scenario, the rate of increase is expected to slow around the middle of the century. Under medium- and high-emissions scenarios, the number of hot days is expected to keep rising past the middle of the century, with no sign of levelling off by the end of the century, with faster and greater increases under a high-emissions scenario.
Cold nights
There will be noticeably fewer cold nights in the ACT this century. The main difference between scenarios is the pace and size of the decline: lower emissions slow the change, while higher emissions lead to faster and greater losses.
Under a low-emissions scenario, the decline of cold nights slows around the middle of the century. Under a medium- and high-emissions scenarios, the number of cold nights continues to decline past the middle of the century, with no sign of levelling off, and by the end of the century the region could have very few, if any, cold nights under a high-emissions scenario.
Rainfalll
Severe fire weather
Adapting to changes in the ACT
To help the ACT adapt to the impacts of climate change, the ACT Government has developed two key strategies:
The ACT Climate Change Strategy 2019–2025 has been developed alongside other key plans and strategies, including the ACT Planning Strategy 2018, ACT Housing Strategy 2018 and ACT Transport Strategy 2020.
The strategy outlines steps that the community, business and ACT Government can take to reduce emissions by 50–60% below 1990 levels by 2025. It also establishes a pathway for achieving net-zero emissions by 2045. Some of the key actions from the strategy include:
- review planning regulations and identify opportunities to require sustainable, climate-wise built environment including through developing a climate-wise code
- reflect climate change projections and risk vulnerabilities in disaster and emergency prevention, preparedness, response and recovery, particularly for extreme heat, bushfire and flash flooding
- encourage community preparedness for climate risks through targeted Emergency Services Agency outreach and the Actsmart sustainability programs
- identify opportunities to increase resilience of terrestrial and aquatic habitats at risk from climate change and implement land management changes and relevant on-ground works with delivery partners
- ensure action plans for threatened species and communities consider the impact of climate change
- encourage sustainable farming practices which are fit for the current and future climate and enhance soil and water quality, and work with farmers to identify opportunities for net zero emissions farming and innovation to increase resilience
- design, and commit to a timeframe for implementing, higher minimum energy performance and climate resilience standards for new buildings that will deliver efficient, zero emissions buildings.
Canberra’s Living Infrastructure Plan: Cooling the City sets the direction for maintaining and enhancing trees, soils and waterways to keep our city cool, healthy and liveable in a changing climate.
The Plan identifies fifteen actions, including measures to:
- achieve 30% tree canopy cover (or equivalent) and 30% permeable surfaces in urban areas by 2045
- develop an Urban Forest Strategy - this was released on 30 March 2021
- introduce landscape planning requirements for multi-dwelling, mixed-use and commercial developments
- support community efforts to incorporate climate-wise landscaping principles and sustainability outcomes.
More information is on the ACT Government’s website on climate change adaptation.
If you have an example of how a community group, business or local government is adapting to climate change, email AdaptNSW so we can share your story.
Together, we can adapt to climate change impacts and continue to work towards a positive future for NSW.
How to adapt to climate changeHow we’ve adapted so far
Across the ACT, government, industry and community are taking action to reduce emissions and manage the impacts of climate change, Examples of climate change adaptation projects in the ACT are:
Case studies from the ACT
When a local risk research firm began work on the ‘Blueprint for a Resilient South-East NSW’ project, they turned to NARCliM to get the data they needed to develop a comprehensive picture of regional climate risk.
The CRJO and its partners created the Bushfire-Resilient Housing Toolkit to reframe bushfire risk to help prepare and build more resilient communities.